Modeling hay fever risk factors caused by pollen from Ambrosia spp. using pollen load mapping in Ukraine

Abstract

The paper provides a simulation of the occurrence of Ambrosia pollen in Ukraine both in terms of a determination of the regions with high pollen concentrations and the time when the high pollen load occurs. Simulation was performed using the SILAM system and the following pollen mapping using the Grid Analysis and Display System. Simulation results were compared with the aerobiological data available from six monitoring stations in Ukraine. A decrease in the concentrations of Ambrosia pollen, the duration of the Ambrosia season, and patient exposure to the Ambrosia pollen were apparent from SE to NW of Ukraine. A close correlation between the modeled and actually registered pollen concentration values and ragweed pollen release periods was observed in all the cities for which the Ambrosia pollen monitoring data had been collected. Further investigations are required to provide accurate forecasts for other types of airborne allergens.