Modeling and forecasting the level of state stimulation of agricultural production in Ukraine based on the theory of fuzzy logic

Abstract

Agricultural sector is a strategic sector for Ukraine; therefore, the task of developing effective incentive mechanisms for the development of agricultural production and increase of efficiency of activities of agricultural product manufacturers – economic entities of the agrarian market – is urgent. The conditions in which the agricultural sector of Ukraine is functioning, and research priorities of modern agricultural science provide an opportunity to deepen research in this direction and focus on justification of scientific and practical recommendations on creation of consolidated, adapted to domestic realities tools of stimulation of development of agricultural production in the country as a whole and its individual territories. The aim of this work is to develop economic and mathematical models of forecasting the level of economic and administrative stimulation of agricultural production in Ukraine based on the theory of fuzzy logic. The object of the study is the system of economic relations for stimulation of agricultural production in Ukraine. The subject of the study is principles of formation and development of economic and mathematical models of stimulation of agricultural production in Ukraine. The agricultural sector of Ukraine's economy with all the elements and components that provide the formation of the country's food security at the national level largely depends on the functionality of the mechanism of stimulation of development of agricultural production, which is one of the important and unsolved issues for Ukraine that requires a prompt solution. The study identifies the factors influencing the level of state stimulation of agricultural production in Ukraine. Factors influencing the level of agricultural production in Ukraine are classified. Economic and mathematical model of estimation and forecasting the level of economic and administrative stimulation of agricultural production in Ukraine is developed. The level of economic and administrative stimulation of agricultural production is forecast till 2020, which will allow forming the strategy of development of Ukraine's agricultural sector.